Tag Archives: Debt

Victoria Grant Has It Right.

Victoria Grant of Cambridge, Ont. is earning a reputation as a financial pundit after her tirade against her homeland's borrowing practices went viral on YouTube.

If you feel like you are drowning in debt and there is no way out, you aren’t alone. As of April, one out of every five U.S, households owed more on their credit cards, medical bills, student loans and other un-collateralized debts than they had in assets. This, according to a University of Michigan report just released Monday.

“Some families have not been able to make substantial headway,” said Frank Stafford, an economist at the U-M Institute for Social Research and co-author of the report.

Since 2008, the only families whose savings levels have increased are those with $50,000 in savings.

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said the U-M results are consistent with other data showing that a large number of lower-middle income households have negative net worth.

“That is, they owe more than they own,” he said. “They are having trouble managing their debt.”

Among economic co-indicators, the U-M report revealed that many families fear more mortgage troubles ahead. About 1.7% of families surveyed in 2011 said it is “very likely or somewhat likely” that they will fall behind on their mortgage payments in the near future. Stafford said “the bad job market is definitely a factor.” The primary concern of the families surveyed was the impact of the primary income earner or their spouse losing their job or having to take a pay cut.

It’s possible, Stafford said, there will be continuing troubles for mortgages in 2013 and 2014.

Another troubling trend the report noted was that nest eggs weren’t quickly being rebuilt after families dug into savings to pay bills. Families with no savings or other liquid assets rose to 23% in 2011, up from 18.5% in 2009.

Surveyed families revealed credit card debt has increased 18%. About 10% of families in 2011 had $30,000 or more in credit card debt and other non-collateralized debts. That compares with 8.5% in 2009. The average interest rate being paid on that debt is 32%. If one were to pay $700/month on $30,000 in credit card debt and never use the card(s) again, it would take 15 years and around $110,000 to pay the debt off. Unless these families can find debt consolidation loans at 13-14%, or win the lottery, the future doesn’t look very bright.

But it is worse for the U.S. government. AKA, you and I and our tax dollars, because you know the banks will not be left holding the bag. Again.

If the survey reflects average families, then that level of credit card debt is representative of about 8 million households or $240 Billion, not quite as frightening as the $1.2 Trillion in student loans outstanding, but still a really big number. The average home value in 2011 was $164,000. The total number of foreclosures projected by the end of 2013 will be 7 million homes, or a loss in real estate mortgage loans of $918.4 Billion. It needs to be offset, by something.

It will be really interesting to see how our Congress sorts this entire mess out. If we took all three losses together, we would be looking to offset $2.3 Trillion in money squandered on loans never to be re-paid. I assume Congress will pass an extension on the carry cost of the student loans, extending the 3.2% and pushing out the increase to 6.4% until … when?

So, we all now know a little bit about how Spain and Ireland and Greece feels, to be helpless in the wake of government mishandling of their leadership responsibilities, and to be unable to assign accountability for policy outcomes. This little 12 year old Canadian girl has it right. Watch her explain here: http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20120515/12-year-old-financial-pundit-becomes-You-Tube-star-120515/


No Way Out.

As I have been thinking about debt and assets and liabilities, it has occurred to me to take a look at one of the largest liabilities the US Federal government has been carrying and the demographic forces that are now bearing down hard on the ultimate payday, our social security system.

As we know, due to an almost laughable absence of leadership, the US government has not seriously addressed, nor even come close to figuring out a way to save its so-called “entitlement programs”, and is now facing a massive shortfall in revenue directed towards those programs, measured in the tens of trillions of dollars. By the way, I object vehemently to politicians’ insistence on referring to these earned benefit programs as “entitlement programs” implying that they are somehow gifts from the government. They were paid for in real cash over many years of employment by every retiree who now draws from the social security well.

This shortfall has occurred because of the same mentality that allowed our national debt to spiral out of control, that is the assumption that the future will always be larger than the past (future debt service will be handled by future borrowing and by the growth of our GDP, and future social security funding will come as the result of future taxes on and abundance of future workers, earning increasingly larger salaries over time). As we have seen with debt, this is a bad assumption.

Prayer will also not work, I am pretty sure.

This assumption creates a dependency upon a growing surplus of current and future workers, and their ever-increasing social security taxes when compared to current and future retirees. So, how’s that working out? In 1940, there were 42 workers per retiree. In 1950, the ratio was 16-to-1. In 2010, there were 2.8 workers per retiree, and within 40 years, it’s projected that there will be just two workers per retiree. At the present rate, as the population ages and life expectancies continue to rise, the system will not be able to sustain itself into the future without major reform. Where is that reform?

And to compound the problem even further, we have begun the great movement known as “the retirement of the baby boomers”. They number around 75 million, and over the next 20 years or so, they will be selling assets and drawing down social security benefits like nobody’s business. Setting aside the issue of who will buy boomer assets, there are insufficient funds in the social security programs to support such a rush on the reservoir. Add to that the fact that young people entering the workforce today are earning exactly what they would have been earning 12 years ago, we have another layer of pressure on the revenue side, and another example of bad assumptions.

Congress cannot keep denying cost of living increases to the social security system in the face of hard evidence to the contrary (see prior post on debt), and those future COLAs, if done properly, will add another 4-5% per year worth of pressure on the system.

So, how are boomers going to retire exactly? Who is going to pay for this impending onslaught of benefits our government is going to have to start forking over? And, how?

Without increasing the payroll tax rate by .5%, or increasing the cap on taxable earnings to 90%, or raising taxes on the actual benefits paid out by 10%, there is no answer. Even if we did all three of these, the impact would only be 72% of the shortfall in the next 10 years. After 10 years, even with these three measures, the impact would fall off to 23%, because the growth in the liability is like a hungry mythical beast, and without RADICAL reform and a BIG tax increase, we can never feed the beast; sort-of like our municipal and state pension obligations.

We have created an enormous burden on future generations of citizen workers, without even a hint of responsible governance or preventive legislation. Congressmen and women who presided over this mess will retire on comfortable and ridiculously generous Federal pensions with fully paid health care benefits, while the average, random Joe and Jane will be stuck holding this bag, with absolutely no hope of any way out. This is beyond shameful. This is criminal.


And, The Hits Just Keep On Coming!

Credit-Card Debts Got ‘Robo Signers,’ Too

And here we were, thinking the “robo signing” of foreclosure documents was just one further ugly chapter in the U.S. housing mess, helping to spur a $25 billion settlement over abusive practices. It turns out that at least one bank, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), resorted to so-called “robo signing” in an additional area: the collection of credit card debts.

American Banker‘s Jeff Horwitz has published the first story in a multi-part series today, examining credit-card collections at Chase. The story details how the bank encouraged “procedural shortcuts and used faulty account records in suing tens of thousands of delinquent credit card borrowers” and reports that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the regulator that oversees federally chartered banks, is investigating the bank’s flawed practices.

When Chase and other banks sue customers who are delinquent in their debts, they must submit affidavits to the court, documenting how much the consumers owe. Horwitz’s reporting shows that in the rush to recoup losses, Chase’s paperwork regularly misstated the debts, with employees often signing court documents without having verified the claims. Chase will turn out to be the baddest bad guy in this group, when it is all said and done. You heard it first here, folks.

Chase declined to comment Tuesday on the American Banker story. In a statement, spokesman Paul Hartwick says that after mortgage documentation problems came to light, the bank reviewed its other lines of business and alerted regulators when it found “other procedural issues.” Says Hartwick: “We have since done a number of tests and found that in the overwhelming majority of cases, the amount collected from customers was correct.” HAHAHAHA.

The story says the problems came to a head when faulty computer systems clashed with the aggressive approach of Chase management. Uh, right. Blame it on the computers. It always works. Chase had several computer programs to track consumer payments and debts. They worked well independently, but didn’t properly talk to each other, often creating discrepancies in how much customers owed. At first, employees could reconcile the differences by hand, but when new management sought to speed up recoveries, employees were told to use shortcuts, the story says.

Outside law firms often represented Chase in court. It’s a high-volume business for the firms, which are paid in proportion to debts they recoup. The law firms didn’t have access to some of Chase’s computer systems to check the documentation and often rushed to file “slapdash work,” the story says. According to an internal document, the numbers used by law firms representing Chase disagreed with the bank’s internal records in almost 20 percent of the cases in one sampling. A whistle-blower lawsuit stated that customers usually owed less than what the bank represented.

When consumers wrote to Chase, their letters were often ignored or shredded. Nice. “Borrower correspondence sent to the San Antonio facility, such as bankruptcy notifications, address changes, and hardship requests, were being dropped on an unmanned desk (this is actually funny), according to a 2009 printout from Chase’s troubleshooting log,” Horwitz writes. The story is filled with details and documents.

The procedures not only dragged consumers into court with faulty records but also created financial consequences for Chase. In April 2011, the bank stopped filing consumer debt-collection lawsuits and closed down an in-house collections office (hmm) that had recouped “several billion dollars of legal judgments every year,” the story says. Without filing new cases, Chase limits its options to recoup legitimate debts it may be owed. It is not clear what the bank is doing to collect on those debts.

So, what happens next? Nothing. Kyle Bass is probably right. Buy gold bullion and a lot of guns.


The Great Recession Explained.

 

Mary is the proprietor of a bar in Dublin, Ireland. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar – she will go broke.

To solve this problem, she comes up with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around about Mary’s “drink now, pay later” marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Mary’s bar.

Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Dublin. All is starting to look rosy. By providing her customers’ freedom from immediate payment demands, Mary gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for whiskey and beer, the most consumed beverages.

Consequently, Mary’s gross sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Mary’s borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed  alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank’s corporate headquarters, 24 year-old MBAs figure a way to make huge commissions by transforming these customer loans into Collateralized Booze Bonds (CBB) and Whiskey Turbo Swaptions (WTS)  . These securities are then bundled and traded on international security markets.

The new investors don’t really understand that the securities being sold to them as ‘AAA’ secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics. They have had the top “rating agency” certify they are of the best quality.

Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation’s leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Mary’s bar. He so informs Mary.

Mary then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics, they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Mary cannot fulfill her loan obligations, she is forced into bankruptcy. So she is now broke. The bar closes and eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, the hot CBBs and WTSs fall in price by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank’s liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. The suppliers of Mary’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms’ pension funds in various CBNBs and WTSs.

They find they are now faced with having to write-off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the securities. Her whiskey supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations. Her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-hundred-billion Euro no-strings-attached cash infusion from their buddies in the government, many of whom were ex-banking employees.

The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Mary’s bar.

Clear?


25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis. Grab a Bat #21.

American Consumers

 

In the third quarter of 2008, Americans began saving more and spending less. Hurrah! That only took 40 years to happen. We’ve been borrowing, borrowing, borrowing — living off and believing in the wealth effect, first in internet stocks, which ended badly, then in real estate, which has ended even more badly. Now we’re out of bubbles. We have a lot less wealth — and a lot more effect. Household debt in the U.S. — the money we owe as individuals — zoomed to more than 130% of income in 2007, up from about 60% in 1982. We enjoyed living beyond our means — no wonder we wanted to believe it would never end.