Everybody keeps telling me to write something positive and to stop harping on gloom and doom in our future.
I really wish I knew how to do that, because every day I search for some signs, or any sign that there is some hopeful event on the horizon that will create a positive impact on our future, but I can’t find any.
I turn on the TV News and without fail, there are varying degrees of sterilized coverage of some economic event that happened three days earlier that will have far greater impact than the newsies imply and is of far greater complexity than they can possibly understand or communicate.
So, they don’t, and America does what? Goes about their business placated by the blind faith that their leaders will figure out how to prevent the world from ending before it does? Do they say to themselves, “Hey, how bad could it get? After all, we went through some deep shit in the 30’s and we came out alright.”
Cable news is marginally better because at least they have a longer segment in which to explore the charts, data, directions, patterns, history, etc., but it is still not enough. Then, I have to remind myself every day that people just don’t care. Here is what people care about:
TRENDING NOW (from Yahoo web searches ranked by popularity) on this fine day in July:
01 Mariah Carey
03 Harrison Ford turns 70
04 Michelle Obama threat
05 Chevy buy-back
06 F-22 hypoxia
07 Bonnie and Clyde guns
09 GOP vice-presidential candidates
10 Rheumatoid arthritis
So, it is obviously more important to the American people that Mariah Carey and Sigourney Weaver are celebrating Harrison Ford’s 70th birthday, while Michelle Obama has threatened a Chevy buy-back and some pilots are still experiencing hypoxia when they ride in the cockpit of a jet the military never wanted, and Bonnie and Clyde have hidden their guns and filed for bankruptcy protection because the GOP VP candidates have rheumatoid arthritis.
THIS is what the people care about.
How can that be? I haven’t a clue.
And, if I believe we are truly headed for hell, then why don’t I write about what we can do about it and instead of warning people all the time, point out some things that people can do once they know it.
OK. Here goes: If you have a job, no matter how shitty, keep it and shut-up about how shitty it is. You are blessed. It isn’t like they promised it would be. So, what? If you are still in school, stay there. Slow it down. Take fewer courses. Get Mono. Avoid graduation like the plague. Yes, even if you are at Harvard or Stanford. And, yes, even if you will have an MBA. Particularly if you have an MBA. Stay on your parents’ health care plan as long as you can. If you have a government job, you are even more blessed.
If you are an Airline Pilot, a Doctor or Lawyer, you are just fine. Not making very much money, but fine. Don’t buy anything you don’t need. Don’t buy real estate, yet.
If you are an investment banker, you are also fine. In fact, you are great. There will be tons of money to be made on the craziest gambles you’ve ever seen. Derivatives? Nah, child’s play. China? Gold? Corn? Salmon? Copper? You betcha.
If you are a commercial banker, you are screwed. Too bad.
If you are unemployed, find something that only you can do and offer it for sale. Try Fiverr, or the like. Make something up. “I will sing Happy Birthday in my silly hat for $5”. Really.
Stop looking for work if you haven’t already. It is bad for your soul. If you’ve been out of work for a year, you undoubtedly have erectile dysfunction. You may have already joined many who have considered suicide. Don’t do it.
Get creative. Find others and band together in some common cause. Like tearing down the government. Don’t do it like the Occupy movement did. Actually form a political party and talk to the media. Use simple words. Talk slowly. Even though it makes no sense, talk about the government making jobs. Or, find a bunch of people and start a business that capitalizes on the GREATEST DEPRESSION EVER. Put people in need together with people who have. Make something up. Now is the time. Bend rules. The law will be so busy chasing truly bad guys, it won’t have time to worry about you. And, where would they put you? Jail? Who would look after you? They are all out of work too.
If you are a teacher, you are doomed, but at least 40% of you still have jobs. Try to stay out of site and don’t ever complain.
If you’re in the military, stay in the military. Re-up. For anything.
If you are upside down on your house, walk away and start over somewhere. If you have a ton of debt, declare bankruptcy before they change the law again and make it even harder. If you are lucky enough to be on unemployment or other government welfare programs, revel in it and stay on them. They are NOT entitlements. You paid for them in taxes. They are yours. You have earned them.
If you have a ton of money, you will have fun and be able to make lots more by betting against all fiscal progress and economic recovery. Bet against Greece. Bet against European banks surviving. Bet against the dollar. Bet against every bank stock, and bet on every European sovereign bond default.
Oh, that’s not what you meant, huh?
OK. The truth is we live in the modern world. And, no matter what happens in Washington or in our State Capitols, this is still the modern world (it would be easy to say this is still America, but technology now allows our freedoms to enable behavior around the world, so I call this the modern world). We can do anything we want here. You want to know what to do? Then, page down to the end, and I’ll tell you.
In the meantime, the cracks in the ice are getting bigger. At this point it is really hard to have much confidence in the global financial system at all. The lying leaders told us that MF Global was an isolated incident. Well, the horrific financial scandal over at PFGBest last week is essentially MF Global all over again. And, either no one was watching or no one was telling. They told us that we would not see a huge wave of municipal bankruptcies in the United States. Well, three California cities have declared bankruptcy in less than a month, and many more are on their way. They told us that we could have faith in the integrity of the global financial system. Well, now we are finding out that global interest rates have been fixed by insiders for years, including our own Treasury leader.
They told us that Greece was an isolated problem and that none of the larger European nations would experience anything remotely similar. Well, what is happening in Spain right now looks like an instant replay of exactly what happened in Greece. So who are we supposed to believe? Why does it seem like nearly everything that “the authorities” tell us turns out to be a lie? What else haven’t they been telling us? I think I know.
Look, tens of millions of American families are about to go through economic hell and most of them don’t even realize it. For some weird reason, most Americans don’t spend a whole lot of time thinking about things like “monetary policy” or “economic cycles”. The vast majority of people just want to be able to get up in the morning, go to work and provide for themselves and their families. Most Americans realize that things seem “harder” these days, but most of them also have faith that things will eventually get better. Why? I have no idea.
Unfortunately, things are NOT going to get any better. The number of good jobs continues to decline, the number of Americans losing their homes continues to go up, people are having a much more difficult time paying their bills and our federal government is drowning in debt. Sadly, this is only just the beginning of how bad it is going to be.
Since the financial collapse of 2008, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have taken unprecedented steps to stimulate the economy. But even with all of those efforts, we are still living in an economic wasteland.
So what is going to happen when the next wave of the economic crisis hits?
If you look at the economic relapse that’s going on right now, look at last week’s abysmal job numbers, look at the housing numbers, understand that all of this is taking place with record monetary and fiscal stimulus. What happens if we remove those supports? What do you think will happen?
Last month, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program ended (QE2 for those of you still counting). The U.S. Congress and state legislatures from coast to coast are talking about budget cuts. The amount of borrowing and spending that has been going on is clearly unsustainable, but will the U.S. economy start shrinking again once the current “financial sugar high” has worn off? QE3? It won’t work. Trust me.
Already, most economic news has been bad and almost all true economic indicators are turning south. And, finally, the American people are becoming increasingly restless. One new poll has found that 59 percent of the American people disapprove of Barack Obama’s handling of the economy (which is a new high). According to another recent poll, 63% of Americans say that they feel “not good” or “bad” about how the U.S. economy is performing. It is not surprising that my buddy, Jimmy Carville is predicting a civil uprising.
The official unemployment rate just went up to 9.1 percent, but that figure only tells part of the picture.
There are some areas of the country where it seems nearly impossible to find a decent job. Millions of Americans have fallen into depression as they find themselves unable to provide for their families.
According to CBS News, 45.1 percent of all unemployed Americans have been out of work for at least six months. That is a higher percentage than at any point during the Great Depression. Just two years ago, the number of “long-term unemployed” in the United States was only 2.6 million. Today, that number is up to 6.2 million.
Can you imagine being out of work for 6 months or more? How would you survive? Do you have enough money in the bank to last 6 months with no income? 89% of Americans don’t. Should I repeat that?
So is there any realistic expectation that things will get any better? Well, there were only about 3 million job openings in the United States during the month of April. Normally there should be about 4.5 million job openings. The economy has slowed down once again. Good jobs are going to become even more rare. Unless we can generate 160,000 new jobs each month, we fail to satisfy new demand. And, that is just NEW demand. It says nothing about existing unemployment. In other words, every new job we fall short of 160,000 is one more added to the unemployment number. So, yes, unemployment is growing. It is not coming down as many in the Obama administration would like to believe.
There are millions of other Americans that are “underemployed”. All over the United States you will find hard working Americans that are flipping burgers or working in retail stores because that is all they can get right now. Most temp jobs and most part-time jobs don’t pay enough to be able to provide for a family. And there are not nearly enough full-time jobs for everyone.
Sadly, the number of “middle class jobs” is about 10 percent lower than a decade ago. There are simply less tickets to the “good life” than there used to be. And without good jobs, the American people cannot afford to buy homes. Without good jobs, the American people cannot even afford the homes that they are in now. And, these jobs are NEVER COMING BACK.
U.S. home prices have fallen 33 percent since the peak of the housing bubble. That is more than they fell during the Great Depression. 28 percent of all homes with a mortgage in the United States are in negative equity at this point. There are millions of American families that are now paying on mortgages that are for far more than their homes are worth. Millions of American families literally feel trapped in their homes. They can’t afford to sell their homes, and they are afraid to simply walk away, because as things stand now, nobody will approve them for new home loans for many years to come.
Many Americans are sticking it out and are staying in their homes until they simply can’t pay for them anymore. As the number of good jobs continues to decline, the number of Americans that are losing their homes continues to rise. For the first time ever, more than a million U.S. families lost their homes to foreclosure in a single year during 2010. As the economy slows down once again and millions more Americans lose their jobs, this problem is going to get a lot worse. WORSE THAN TODAY.
Even if they aren’t losing their homes yet, millions of other Americans families are finding it increasingly difficult to pay the bills. Wages have been very flat over the past few years and yet the cost of most of the basics just seems to keep going up and up. According to Brent Meyer, a senior economic analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the cost of food and the cost of energy have risen at an annualized rate of 17 percent over the past six months. Have your wages gone up by 17 percent over the past six months?
As 2009 began, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States was $1.83. Today it is $3.77. American families are finding that their paychecks are going a lot less farther than they used to, but Ben Bernanke keeps insisting that we have very little inflation in 2011.
Most Americans don’t care much about economic statistics – they just want to be able to do basic things like sit on their porch and have a beer, and take their children to the doctor. According to one recent survey, 26 percent of Americans have put off doctor visits because of the economy. Sadly, soon a lot more American families will not be able to afford to go to the doctor. But, ironically, not because Doctors are earning and charging more, but because Insurance companies are. Doctor’s wages continue to trend down while Insurance company profits continue to trend up.
As the economic situation has unraveled, an increasing number of people are being forced to turn to the federal government for assistance. One out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Some of the hardest hit members of our society have been our children. Today, one out of every four American children is on food stamps. At the moment, approximately 44 million Americans are on food stamps.
But our federal government cannot afford to spend money like this forever.
According to a recent USA Today analysis, the U.S. federal government took on $5.3 trillion in new financial obligations during 2010. USA Today says that the U.S. government now has $61.6 trillion in financial obligations that have not been paid for yet. Yes, that is trillion! $61.6 TRILLION. Who is going to end up paying that bill? I know; you don’t care. And neither do I. What I care about is where my next meal is coming from, and how I am going to afford that next gallon of gas. I suspect you do too.
So with so much bad news and with all economic indicators pointing in the wrong direction, are our leaders alarmed?
According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, “growth seems likely to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year.” I swear to God, the man is on drugs or has a contract clause that forces him to keep repeating the same mantra, no matter what happens. He, and his buddies in Washington and in your State capitol are part of the same disease. The disease that brings us closer every day to Armageddon.
So, what do we do? I said I would tell you what to do, right?
OK. This may seem silly to some of you, but there is absolutely no reason why we cannot all start a new business that is independent of anyone else and relies only on our own creativity and energy. This is not a plug for Crowdfunding. This is a plug for entrepreneurship. There are many websites around now that provide the ability to post a project and solicit funds to launch it. Kickstarter, Indiegogo and RocketHub are three American sites joined by several in the UK and elsewhere that facilitate anyone with a dream to test the water in the Crowd for enthusiasm about your project. Here’s an example:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/readmatter/matter — Might not be your style? How about this one: http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1220832022/bloc-socks?ref=popular … or … this one: http://www.rockethub.com/projects/8479-social-action-10-months-in-tel-aviv
The point is that you can, and should … DO SOMETHING! Stop waiting for somebody else to do it for you. Stop looking for a job. Stop feeling sorry for yourself.
Grab some buds, and get a dialogue going around some pet idea that you have had in the back of your mind. Maybe it comes from your frustrations as a single mother, as a cabdriver, as a fireman, a teacher, a bricklayer, whatever. There must be 99 ways to whatever you do better, faster, cooler, bigger or more. You can come up with something that maybe a few hundred other people think is a good idea also.
Then, you can post it on these sites and maybe, just maybe, you will raise enough money to start a little company doing that thing. Maybe it takes off. Maybe it flops. In the meantime, you might raise enough to sustain yourself to get to the second or third idea. You know? The one that really works.
This beats sitting around, feeling sorry for yourself and looking at want-ads, doesn’t it? And, you know that will never work anyway, and all it does is bring you closer to depression. Don’t be that guy. Don’t do the stuff that brings you closer to depression. Start something. It takes zero cash. You can do this.
And, though I realize you really don’t care, it is also the way in which we re-start this country and throw all of the old paradigms about banking and central government out the window. It is up to us now. Let’s do this thing!